BAL · WR
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
No projection changes recorded this week.
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Zay Flowers enters the season as Baltimore's clear top wide receiver, the only pass catcher on the depth chart with the target volume of a featured option. Last season he played all seventeen games, started every one, and ran a route on 86% of the offense's snaps, which is the kind of usage that turns targets into a season-long floor rather than a week-to-week guess. He drew 118 targets and turned them into 86 receptions, a catch rate of 72.9%, for 1,211 yards and 5 touchdowns. That volume produced 243.3 PPR points across the year, 14.3 per game, good for a finish of seventh at his position. Through the first game of this season the early snap share reads at only 29.4%, well below last year's baseline, though the box score from that outing (6 targets, 5 catches, 150 yards, one touchdown, 26 points) shows the offense still knows how to find him when he is on the field. Quarterback Lamar Jackson remains the trigger man in this offense, and the season-long body of work shows he leans on Flowers as a primary read rather than a complementary piece. Running back Derrick Henry and tight end Mark Andrews round out the skill-position group, but neither changes the fundamental fact that Flowers is the receiver this passing game is built around when healthy usage patterns hold. The one-game 2026 sample is too small to redraw his role from, but it is the first data point of the new year and worth tracking alongside the snap count in the weeks that follow.
The case for Zay Flowers starts with the target share he has already proven he can command. A receiver who saw 118 targets and posted a 72.9% catch rate for 1,211 yards is not a situational piece; he is central to how quarterback Lamar Jackson distributes the ball. The touchdown clip is modest at 5 scores on the year, but the yards per reception of 14.1 shows he is not merely a checkdown option running short routes to pad a catch rate. His one game so far this season, with 150 yards and a touchdown on just 6 targets, is a small sample but it demonstrates the offense is still willing to hunt him down the field even in a reduced snap count. The case against him centers on that same one-game snap share. Running a route on only 29.4% of the offense's plays is a significant drop from the 86% mark he carried across all of last season, and if that lower figure becomes the new normal rather than a one-week anomaly, the target floor that produced his seventh-place finish among receivers a year ago is not guaranteed to return. A receiver who is off the field for seventy percent of the snaps cannot replicate 118 targets over a full season no matter how efficiently he uses the ones he gets. There is also the touchdown profile to consider: 5 scores on 118 targets and only 10 red zone looks is a low red-zone allocation for a receiver carrying this much target volume, which means his fantasy ceiling in a given week depends heavily on chunk plays rather than a repeatable scoring role near the goal line. The rushing work, 10 attempts for 62 yards last season, is a minor value-add rather than a real driver of his weekly floor, so it should not factor heavily into projections either way. What matters more is reconciling last season's role, built on a near-full snap share and a target total that ranks among the position's best, with the one-game sample showing a much smaller on-field allocation. If the 29.4% figure was a product of game flow or a single week's game plan, the underlying evidence points to a receiver who remains a focal point of quarterback Lamar Jackson's passing offense, with running back Derrick Henry drawing early-down work and tight end Mark Andrews occupying a complementary receiving role rather than competing directly for the same targets. If the snap share stays depressed across multiple games, the outlook shifts meaningfully, because volume, not one big play, was what built his standing a season ago.
Start Zay Flowers in all standard lineup formats based on the season-long evidence: a receiver who ran a route on 86% of his team's snaps and drew 118 targets last year has earned an every-week role, and one game of a smaller snap count is not enough to bench a proven target earner. His per-game average last season, 14.3 points, plus the 26-point outing to open this season, both support treating him as a reliable option rather than a situational flex play. The number to track closely is the snap share. If it climbs back toward last season's 86% level over the next couple of games, nothing changes and he should stay locked into lineups without a second thought. If it stays anchored near the 29.4% mark from the opener, managers should reassess how much of his production is coming on a handful of high-value snaps versus a genuinely full route tree, since that distinction affects how safe his floor is on a week where the big plays do not show up. For managers in a trade discussion, last season's target total and touchdown output, 5 scores on 118 looks, are the anchor points to cite in valuing him, since they reflect a full season of evidence rather than a single game. He is not a wire candidate and should not be treated as a bench-and-wait stash; the sample size favors continuing to deploy him as a starting option while watching the early-season snap trend for confirmation.
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Flowers is expected to play, which lowers the risk of a surprise absence for fantasy managers. That keeps him in starting lineups if he is active.
Oct 4, 11:45 AM ET
Source:roundtable.io
Flowers is expected to play today despite being limited this week, so fantasy managers can keep him in lineups.
Oct 4, 9:45 AM ET
Source:profootballnetwork.com
Flowers is expected to play Sunday despite being limited this week with a hamstring injury.
He was downgraded to questionable after Friday’s practice, following a full session on Thursday. His status is now a late fantasy decision for Week 4.
Oct 2, 4:50 PM ET
Source:CBS Sports