JAX · QB
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
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Trevor Lawrence sits atop Jacksonville's depth chart without competition, and the offense runs through him almost entirely: he took 97.7% of the offensive snaps in 2025 and has held 94% so far in 2026. That is not a rotational share; that is the full plate. Over the seventeen games of 2025 he threw 560 times, completing 341 passes for 4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he added 82 rushing attempts for 359 yards and 9 rushing scores. The rushing production matters as much as the passing volume because it is a separate, floor-raising stream of fantasy points that does not depend on his receivers finishing plays. Through two games in 2026 he has already thrown for 434 yards on 52 attempts with 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception, completing 67.31% of his passes — a version of the passer who is spreading the ball to Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers at receiver and to Brenton Strange at tight end. Strange is the clear number one tight end on the depth chart, and a functioning check-down and red-zone target at that spot gives Lawrence an underneath option that keeps drives alive when the outside receivers are covered. Bhayshul Tuten's early work as the top running back also shapes the offense's balance — a competent ground game keeps defenses from selling out on obvious passing downs. None of that changes the fundamental fact of Lawrence's role: he is the every-down triggerman for Jacksonville, and the volume follows him accordingly.
The case for Trevor Lawrence starts with usage. A passer who accounts for 560 attempts and 82 rushing attempts across a full season, as he did in 2025, is going to produce fantasy points on volume alone, and the finish of 4 among all players at his position in PPR that year reflects that. The rushing touchdowns — 9 of them in 2025 — are the separator. Plenty of pocket passers can hit 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns through the air, but the added scrambles and designed runs give Lawrence a scoring path that pure statue quarterbacks lack. The 2026 sample, though small, supports the passing-efficiency growth story: a 67.31% completion rate on 52 attempts and only 1 interception against 4 touchdowns through two games is a cleaner decision-making profile than the 60.89% completion rate and 12 interceptions he posted across all of 2025. The case against him is built on that same small sample cutting the other way. His finish through two games in 2026 is 16 among players at his position in PPR, a sharp step down from the 4 finish he posted over the full 2025 season, and the early rushing numbers — 4 attempts for 9 yards — suggest the scramble-and-score element that drove so much of his 2025 upside has not shown up yet. If that rushing production does not return, Lawrence becomes a passer leaning on 4,007-yard, 29-touchdown-caliber volume without the score-manufacturing floor that made him a top-four fantasy quarterback last year. There is also the question of what his receiving corps gives him. Brian Thomas Jr. is entering only his second season, Parker Washington is in year three, and Jakobi Meyers, in year seven, is more of a possession piece than a vertical threat. Brenton Strange, also just in year three, is still establishing himself as a reliable red-zone target rather than a proven focal point. If none of those pass-catchers force extra attention from opposing defenses, Lawrence's completion percentage and touchdown rate could regress toward his 2025 full-season marks rather than sustain his hot 2026 start. Weigh the two data points honestly: 350.18 PPR points across seventeen games last year is a proven baseline, and 33.26 points through two games this year is either the start of a leap or a small-sample mirage propped up by early defensive miscommunication. The volume — 97.7% and 94% snap shares in consecutive seasons — is the one constant, and volume at quarterback tends to survive scoring variance better than it does at other positions.
Start Trevor Lawrence as a weekly quarterback option in most formats. The full-season 2025 line — 350.18 PPR points, a finish of 4 among players at his position — establishes him as a reliable starter, and the near-total snap share in both 2025 and 2026 means the volume is not going anywhere. Treat the early 2026 finish of 16 as noise from a two-game sample rather than a signal to bench him; 434 yards, 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception on 67.31% completion is an efficient stretch, not a decline. The one thing to track closely is the rushing line. His 2025 season included 82 rushing attempts and 9 rushing touchdowns, a significant share of his fantasy scoring; 2026 has produced only 4 attempts for 9 yards so far. If that rushing usage stays this thin over a larger sample, downgrade him slightly from must-start to a strong streaming option, since the passing volume alone — even at 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns pace — may not replicate a finish inside the top five. Watch also how Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Brenton Strange develop as targets; growth from any of them raises Lawrence's ceiling further. There is no scenario here that points to bench or wire — his snap share and proven full-season production keep him rostered and started in essentially every format.
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