LAR · TE
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
▲ +2.3 ptsAI-assisted · Researched and drafted by our automated pipeline, then checked for accuracy before publishing. How we make these
Terrance Ferguson enters this season as the second tight end on the Los Angeles Rams depth chart, behind Colby Parkinson, but the two games played this year show a player whose role is expanding rather than shrinking. His snap share sits at 50.8%, a meaningful jump from the 38.7% he carried across his rookie season, and he has already started both games. That is not a committee arrangement in name only; it is real playing time. Through two games he has drawn ten targets, caught six of them for a 60% catch rate, gained 54 yards, and scored one touchdown, with one of his targets coming in the red zone. Those are early-season numbers, but they point to a tight end who is no longer a situational piece. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has looked his way with more frequency than last year's target pace suggested was coming, and that trust is the single most important variable in whether this role holds. Parkinson remains the primary tight end in name, but a fifty-fifty snap split, or something close to it, is not what teams do with a clear TE1 if the other option is a non-factor.
The bull case starts with the trajectory. Last season, over fourteen games with only three starts, Ferguson posted 52.1 PPR points, a 3.7 points-per-game pace that finished 52nd among all players at the position. That was a role defined largely by garbage-time snaps and low-value targets, evidenced by the 44% catch rate and modest volume of twenty-five targets across the whole year. Two games into this season, he is averaging 8.7 points per game and already ranks 17th at the position. Even allowing for a small sample, that is a real change in usage, not simply better luck on a handful of catches — his snap share nearly matches Parkinson's in his own words, based on the near-even split reflected in the numbers, and Stafford has clearly found ways to get him the ball, including work in scoring range. The skeptical case is just as easy to build. Two games is two games. A quarterback like Stafford, in his seventeenth season, has thrown to plenty of tight ends over the years without turning any of them into weekly difference-makers, and the presence of Parkinson on the same depth chart means Ferguson is not the only mouth to feed at the position. His career-long profile — one touchdown-heavy stretch of twenty-one yards per reception last year on very low volume — suggests a big-play component that can vanish as quickly as it appeared. A catch rate of 44% across a full season last year, even if it has improved to 60% early this year, is a signal that target quality and route diversity have been inconsistent. Three red-zone targets across all of last season is not the profile of a player his team is designing plays around near the goal line, and one red-zone look through two games this year does not yet contradict that. The honest read sits between those two stories. Ferguson's role has grown, and the target share, snap share and touchdown already on his 2026 ledger are all better than anything he produced across most of last season. But this is still a shared job, with Parkinson occupying meaningful snaps in the same offense, and Stafford has other established options at receiver in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, plus backfield work for Kyren Williams, that will always compete for volume. The tight end position in this offense has not been a season-long focal point in recent history, and there is no guarantee that changes simply because the first two weeks looked encouraging. Ferguson's ceiling this season depends on whether his early usage is a real shift in how the coaching staff views him or a product of matchups that will not repeat.
Treat Ferguson as a streaming option rather than a locked-in starter right now. The early role — a near-even snap split with Colby Parkinson, six catches on ten targets, and a touchdown already in the red zone — is good enough to warrant a flex look in deeper leagues, especially given his 8.7 points-per-game start ranks him 17th at the position through two weeks. But last season's full-year line, just 52.1 points and a 52nd-place finish, is the larger sample and the fairer baseline until he proves otherwise over more than two games. In shallower or standard leagues, he belongs on the wire or as a depth stash, not an every-week starter. Watch his snap share and red-zone usage over the next few weeks: if the 50.8% snap rate holds or climbs, and if Matthew Stafford keeps finding him in scoring position, that is the signal to move him into regular flex or streaming rotation for tight-end-needy rosters. If Parkinson's role reasserts itself and Ferguson's snaps recede back toward last year's 38.7%, drop him back to the wire without hesitation. This is a wait-and-confirm situation, not a buy-in on name value.
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Terrance Ferguson’s projection likely jumped because Puka Nacua was out with a hip/groin issue, opening up more targets and usage for Ferguson in the Rams’ Week 2 offense. Ferguson then backed that up with a breakout Monday night performance, catching 6 of 9 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown, which would naturally lift his fantasy outlook.
Sep 22, 11:18 AM ET
Terrance Ferguson’s projection likely rose because Rams teammates Puka Nacua and Jordan Whittington were dealing with injuries, which could open up more targets and snaps for Ferguson in Monday night’s game. Reports also noted Ferguson was already in line for a larger role with the Rams shorthanded.
Sep 20, 2:17 PM ET