ARI · WR
Projected Points (PPR)
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Michael Wilson enters the year atop Arizona's receiver depth chart, a notable marker for a third-year pro who spent his first two seasons working around other names. In 2025 he played in all seventeen games, started thirteen, and carried a snap share of 81%, which put him squarely in the offense's rotation on early downs and passing situations alike. The volume followed: 126 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,006 receiving yards, with seven touchdowns and 15 red-zone looks. That is a full season's workload for a team's primary target, not a complementary piece. Through the first two games of 2026, that role has if anything grown on paper — his snap share is up to 88.8% — though the target and production numbers so far (14 targets, 7 receptions, 74 yards) are early and thin. The quarterback throwing him the ball is Jacoby Brissett, a ten-year veteran now running the offense as the starter, and the receiver drawing a share of that attention on the other side is Marvin Harrison Jr., who occupies the second receiver spot on the depth chart. Wilson's snap share suggests he is not being rotated off the field in favor of Harrison Jr.; instead the two are meant to operate as the top two receiving options in the passing game, with tight end Trey McBride further complicating the target math as the clear top producer at his own position.
The case for Michael Wilson starts with usage. A player logging an 81% snap share and 126 targets in a season is not a name-value roster spot — that is a heavily featured piece of the passing game. The catch rate of 61.9% on that target volume, paired with 12.9 yards per reception, points to a receiver who wins with route volume rather than gets fed cheap short-area targets. Seven touchdowns and 15 red-zone targets in 2025 show the offense trusted him near the goal line, which is often the hardest role for a receiver to hold onto. If Jacoby Brissett settles into rhythm as the starting quarterback and continues distributing targets the way the offense did last season, Wilson's floor as a high-snap, high-target receiver is real and repeatable. The case against him is just as straightforward, and it starts with the same two games that opened this argument. Through two games in 2026, his points have dropped to 7.2 per game and his finish among players at his position is 54, a steep fall from the 13 points per game and finish of 10 he posted across all of 2025. His catch rate has also fallen, to 50%, even as his snap share rose. That combination — more snaps, fewer catches relative to targets — suggests either a shift in how the offense is targeting him or simply a quarterback still finding his footing. Jacoby Brissett is a long-tenured pro but he is also new to running this specific offense as its full-time starter, and early efficiency numbers for every pass-catcher in a new starting quarterback's first weeks tend to be volatile. Marvin Harrison Jr. sitting in the second receiver spot also means the target pool is being split with a player capable of drawing his own significant share, and any growth in his role would come at some cost to Wilson's ceiling, even if it does not touch his floor of snaps. Weighing the two: the 2025 season was built on volume that would translate to strong weekly outputs in almost any queue of receivers, but the early returns in 2026 show that volume has not yet converted into the same efficiency. A manager has to decide whether the drop is a product of early-season noise around a new starting quarterback finding his rhythm, or a real signal that the passing offense now runs through other options first. The red-zone role from a season ago is the detail most worth tracking, since touchdown production is what turned a modest catch rate into strong overall points before.
Michael Wilson belongs in flex consideration for most rosters right now, not as an auto-start. The full snap share is real and it is not going away, but the two-game start to 2026 shows the points have not followed the workload yet. Managers holding him from last season's breakout have earned the right to be patient for a few more weeks before making a call, especially given how unsettled early efficiency numbers tend to be with Jacoby Brissett still building chemistry as the starting quarterback. What would move him back into a clear starting role: a return of the red-zone role he had in 2025, or a stretch where his catch rate climbs back toward last year's level even as his target count holds. What would push him toward the bench: continued decline in catches per target while Marvin Harrison Jr. begins drawing a heavier target share on the other side, which would suggest the passing offense's hierarchy has genuinely shifted. For managers without him, he is not a wire-priority add on name value alone — the recent numbers do not support it — but he is worth monitoring weekly given the underlying snap count, since a workload of that size rarely stays unproductive for long if the passing offense finds any consistency.'
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