BAL · TE
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
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Mark Andrews sits atop the depth chart at tight end in Baltimore, and the early snap numbers back that standing. Through two games he is playing 71.4% of the offensive snaps, up from 62.3% across all of last season, and the target volume has followed. Thirteen targets in two games is a real workload for the position, and he has turned that into ten receptions, a catch rate of 76.9%. This is a player being used as a consistent option in the passing game, not a situational body. The eight-year veteran's rapport with Lamar Jackson, who runs this offense as the starting quarterback, remains the engine behind the target share — Jackson has long looked for Andrews on third down and near the goal line, and nothing in the early-season pattern suggests that has changed. The rest of the offensive picture matters too: Derrick Henry anchors the run game as the primary back, which keeps defenses honest against the ground attack and can open underneath and intermediate passing lanes for a tight end working the middle of the field, while Zay Flowers operates as the leading wide receiver, drawing coverage attention that Andrews can work against from a different alignment. None of this guarantees he stays the top target on early downs all year, but as of week two, the snap share and target count both point to him being firmly entrenched in Baltimore's passing offense rather than a complementary or rotational piece.
The optimistic case for Mark Andrews starts with what has already happened this season. Nine and nine-tenths PPR points per game across his first two outings is a meaningful step up from the 7.7 he averaged over all of last season, and the snap share increase from 62.3% to 71.4% suggests the coaching staff is leaning on him more, not less. A catch rate of 76.9% on thirteen targets shows he is still a reliable target when the ball comes his way, and yards per reception of 9.8 indicates he is not being used purely as a checkdown option — he is still moving the chains and picking up real yardage after the catch. If Lamar Jackson continues to look his way at this rate, the counting stats over a full season could easily surpass last year's 422 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, both of which came on just 70 targets across the full 2025 slate. The skeptical case is built on last season's finish. A finish of sixteenth among all players at his position in PPR scoring on 131 points is not a difference-making number, and while the two-game finish of fourteenth this season is a modest step up, two games is a small sample against a full season of data. Last year's red zone role — 14 targets in the red zone across 17 games — was already thin for a player whose fantasy value has always leaned heavily on scoring touchdowns rather than accumulating yardage; his 8.8 yards per reception mark last season was well below what a big-play threat generates, meaning touchdowns have to do the heavy lifting for his fantasy output. This season he has just 1 red zone target through two games, and if that trend holds, the touchdown production that made him a difference-maker in past years may not return even if the target volume stays high. The honest read sits between those two stories. The role is clearly bigger early in 2026 than it was for most of last season, and the per-target efficiency numbers — catch rate near seventy-seven percent — are strong. But the sample is two games, the red zone role has not shown up yet in the early data, and last season's overall finish reminds you this is a player who needs the scoring opportunities to materialize to be a difference-maker rather than a serviceable weekly floor play. Managers should weigh the improved usage against the fact that touchdown-dependent value can disappear as quickly as it arrives if the red zone looks do not follow the overall target increase.
Start Mark Andrews in most lineup formats right now. The snap share of 71.4% and the fact he has drawn thirteen targets over two games are both signs of an established role in the passing game, and a catch rate of 76.9% means the volume is translating into completions rather than incompletions. In shallower leagues he is a comfortable starting tight end; in deeper or tighter-margin leagues, treat him as a strong flex-caliber option whose weekly ceiling depends on the red zone usage catching up to the overall target share. What would change this: if the red zone targets stay as scarce as the 1 he has seen through two games while the overall volume holds, his production will lean on yardage rather than touchdowns, and yardage alone at 9.8 yards per reception will not produce difference-making weeks. Conversely, if the red zone role expands back toward last year's pace of 14 targets over a full season, or exceeds it given the early snap-share bump, his weekly ceiling rises meaningfully. Watch the target share relative to Zay Flowers and the passing-game balance around Derrick Henry's role in the run game — if Baltimore's offense keeps funneling short and intermediate looks to Andrews near the goal line, he is a weekly starter without much argument otherwise.
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