ATL · TE
Projected Points (PPR)
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Kyle Pitts Sr. enters the season as Atlanta's starting tight end, a job he has held since he arrived in the league. Last season he played in all seventeen games and started all seventeen, and the offense built its passing operation around him more than most teams build around any tight end — his share of the offensive snaps sat at 87.4%, a number that put him on the field for nearly every meaningful passing situation Atlanta ran. That workload translated into real volume: 118 targets, 88 receptions, and a catch rate of 74.6%. He finished second among all players at his position in PPR scoring with 210.8 points, averaging 12.4 per game. Through the opening three games of this season, his snap share has fallen to 53%, with only six targets, two receptions, twenty yards, and 4 PPR points across those three games — a points-per-game mark of 1.3. Drake London remains the primary receiver target in this offense, and Bijan Robinson anchors the backfield, with Brian Robinson Jr. behind him. Michael Penix Jr. is the quarterback distributing the ball, and how he reads the field week to week has everything to do with whether Pitts resembles the player from last season or the one from these first three games.
The case for Kyle Pitts Sr. starts with precedent. A season ago he was a true focal point of the passing game, finishing as the number-two tight end in PPR scoring with 210.8 points and a 12.4 points-per-game average built on 118 targets and a catch rate of 74.6%. That level of target volume for a tight end is rare league-wide, and it did not come from garbage time — it came from an offense that trusted him on seventeen started games. If Atlanta's passing concepts return to funneling work his way, the receptions and yardage follow, because the sample already exists. The case against him is sitting right in the box score from these first three games. A snap share of 53% is a steep drop from 87.4%, and six targets across three games is not the volume of a focal receiving tight end — it is closer to a complementary role. Two receptions for twenty yards and a yards-per-reception mark of 10 are not alarming in isolation, but paired with the snap-share decline they suggest Atlanta has changed how it uses him, whether by game plan, personnel grouping, or simply a different early-season script. A finish of sixty-fourth among tight ends through three weeks, compared with second a season ago, is as sharp a swing as the position produces. The honest read requires weighing both stretches rather than picking one. Eleven red-zone targets a season ago show that when the offense trusted him near the goal line, it used him — he turned that trust into 5 receiving touchdowns. If Michael Penix Jr. settles into rhythm as the season progresses and Atlanta leans on multiple tight-end-friendly concepts again, the earlier sample is the more predictive one. But if the reduced role in the first three games reflects a real shift in how the coaching staff deploys him relative to Drake London on the perimeter and the running back duo of Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr., then last season's numbers become a ceiling rather than a baseline. Nothing in the verified record tells us which of those is true yet — only that the gap between 87.4% and 53% is too large to dismiss as noise, and too early in the sample to treat as destiny.
Treat Kyle Pitts Sr. as a weekly decision rather than an automatic start right now. The snap-share drop from 87.4% to 53%, combined with just six targets and 4 PPR points across the first three games, is not the profile of a set-and-forget tight end, even with 210.8 PPR points and a second-place finish at the position a season ago sitting in his recent history. Managers who rostered him off last year's production should hold rather than cut, since a return to anything resembling last season's role would make him a weekly starter again, but he should not be penciled into lineups purely on reputation while his snap count sits where it does. Watch two things: whether his snap share climbs back toward where it was, and whether his red-zone usage returns, since eleven red-zone targets a season ago were a meaningful part of his touchdown production. If Michael Penix Jr. begins targeting him at a rate closer to the 118 from last season, move him back into flex or starting consideration immediately. Until that volume reappears, he is a bench piece with upside, not a confident lineup lock, and managers should prioritize tight ends currently showing the volume Pitts produced a season ago rather than chase last year's numbers in this year's box score.
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