NO · TE
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
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Juwan Johnson sits atop the tight end depth chart in New Orleans, and the numbers back up the assignment rather than just the label. He played all seventeen games last season, starting ten of them, and finished with a snap share of 75.7 percent, evidence that the offense treats him as a full-time piece rather than a rotational body. Through the opening game of this season his role has only tightened, with his snap share climbing to 84.4 percent. Volume followed: he drew seven targets in that game, more than a third of them in the red zone with two red-zone looks, and turned three catches into 54 yards and a touchdown at 18 yards per reception. Last season he was targeted 102 times, catching 77 of them for a catch rate of 75.5 percent, totaling 889 yards and three touchdowns across 179.9 PPR points, an average of 10.6 points per game that placed him eighth among all tight ends in PPR scoring. Quarterback Tyler Shough now runs this offense, and the early-season target rate suggests Johnson is one of his preferred outlets, particularly near the goal line where red-zone targets translate directly into scoring chances. Wide receiver Chris Olave and running back Travis Etienne Jr. round out the skill-position picture, but neither change what Johnson is asked to do: line up, run a full route tree, and serve as a reliable underneath and intermediate target. The early finish of eighth among tight ends through one game mirrors last year's season-long finish at the same spot, a sign of stability in his role even as the passer around him is new.
The case for Juwan Johnson starts with target share and snap share, the two inputs that predict tight end production more reliably than touchdowns do. A 75.7 percent snap share across a full season and an early-season jump to 84.4 percent both point to a player who is on the field for nearly every meaningful snap, regardless of personnel grouping. A catch rate of 75.5 percent last season shows he is efficient with the volume he gets, not just accumulating garbage targets. And the red-zone usage — eight red-zone targets last season, already two more through a single game this year — matters more for tight ends than for any other position, since scoring chances near the goal line are where the touchdown equity lives. With Tyler Shough now at quarterback, an unproven passer in his first year as the full-time starter, tight ends often become a security blanket, the shortest, most reliable read on the field. Early returns support that idea: seven targets in the opening game is a healthy number for anyone not named as a true focal point.paragraphs.lastaramarr Chase paragraphs.himself: 889 yards on 77 catches works out to a modest 11.5 yards per reception, and three touchdowns across a full season is a low return for a player logging that much snap time. The eighth-place finish among tight ends in PPR scoring, both for the full season and through the small sample so far this year, is respectable without being commanding — this is a player who finishes in the same tier year over year rather than trending toward difference-making numbers. The counter-argument, honestly stated, is that Johnson's role is closer to a possession-chain-mover than a weapon who wins on scoring plays; 18 yards per reception in the opener is an outlier relative to his career profile of shorter, high-percentage catches. If Tyler Shough leans more on Chris Olave downfield as he settles into the starting job, Johnson's target share could compress even if his snap share holds. There is also the question of touchdown regression to the mean — a single touchdown through one game on a career mark of three scores across a full season last year suggests the early rate is unlikely to hold. Still, the floor here is real. A tight end playing over three-quarters of the snaps, drawing regular red-zone work, and catching three-quarters of his targets has a repeatable baseline even without spectacular per-catch numbers. The ceiling is capped less by opportunity than by the passing game's overall efficiency behind a first-year starter, which is the variable to watch all season.
Treat Juwan Johnson as a start at tight end in most formats, not a bench-and-hope option. His snap share alone — 75.7 percent last season, 84.4 percent through the season's first game — guarantees him a role in the passing game every week, and tight end is a position where consistent usage often beats explosive but sporadic production. His finish of eighth among tight ends in PPR points last season, matched by an identical finish through the season's opening game, shows a stable weekly floor rather than a boom-or-bust profile. In shallower leagues where only one tight end slot exists, he belongs in the lineup by default given the target competition at the position league-wide. In deeper or two-tight-end formats, he is a clear starter without much debate. What would change the calculus is a shift in target distribution — if Chris Olave begins commanding a disproportionate share of Tyler Shough's attempts as the rookie starter gains confidence throwing downfield, Johnson's target totals could shrink even if his snap count stays high. Watch the red-zone target numbers specifically; that is where his touchdown equity lives, and any drop-off there would lower his scoring ceiling regardless of overall volume. Barring that shift, he is a lineup lock, not a wire candidate and not a matchup-based flex.”
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He returned to practice after missing Wednesday with an illness, which is a positive sign for his availability.
Sep 17, 4:30 PM ET
Source:CBS Sports