HOU · RB
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
▼ -11.9 ptsAI-assisted · Researched and drafted by our automated pipeline, then checked for accuracy before publishing. How we make these
David Montgomery sits in Houston's backfield as the depth chart's fourth-listed running back on our board, which undersells how he has actually been used through the season's first five games: a 46.4% snap share and five starts suggest he remains the early-down option the staff turns to, even as Woody Marks, a rookie back now listed as the team's RB1 on our depth chart, pulls snaps and touches away. Through those five games Montgomery has carried the ball fifty-two times for one hundred thirty-eight yards, a 2.7 yards-per-carry mark that reflects a tougher road than a season ago. He has found the end zone twice on the ground and added one receiving touchdown, with seven receptions on seven targets for sixty-seven yards — a sign the passing-game role, while modest, has been efficient when it's been there. Eight of his carries have come in the red zone, which matters in an offense that still trusts him in scoring range even as the broader workload shifts. Last season he played all seventeen games, posted a 36.7% snap share, carried the ball one hundred fifty-eight times for seven hundred sixteen yards at 4.5 yards per carry, scored eight rushing touchdowns on thirty-three red zone carries, and caught twenty-four of twenty-nine targets for one hundred ninety-two yards — a profile that finished twenty-seventh at his position in PPR scoring. The snap share has actually risen this season relative to last, even with Woody Marks sharing the backfield, which tells you the coaching staff has not abandoned Montgomery's role so much as redistributed it.
The bull case starts with usage in the scoring zone: eight red zone carries through five games is meaningful work, and Montgomery's touchdown production — two rushing, one receiving — shows the Texans still lean on him when the field shortens. His receiving line, seven catches on seven targets for sixty-seven yards, is efficient, and a back who doesn't drop high-value targets keeps himself relevant in PPR formats regardless of overall touch count. His snap share increase from last season's 36.7% to this season's 46.4% is the single most encouraging data point here — it argues against the idea that Woody Marks has simply taken his job. The bear case is just as real. The yards-per-carry drop from 4.5 last season to 2.7 this season is a significant efficiency decline, and it has come without a corresponding spike in volume — fifty-two carries through five games this season tracks close to last season's one hundred fifty-eight across seventeen games, so this isn't a case of more touches masking worse per-touch output. Last season's 166.92 PPR points over seventeen games works out to a modest 9.8 points per game, and this season's 45.5 points through five games produces almost the same per-game rate at 9.1 — stable, but stable at a modest level rather than trending upward, and the finish of twenty-seventh at his position last season against fortieth this season through five weeks suggests the field around him has gotten more competitive, not that his role has grown enough to offset it. Woody Marks is the variable that decides how this plays out. He's listed as the Texans' depth-chart RB1, which on its face reads as a threat to Montgomery's touches, yet the actual game usage this season — the rising snap share, the red zone work — suggests the coaching staff is still finding ways to use Montgomery as a situational and short-yardage piece even as Marks absorbs other reps. Whether that split holds depends on whether Marks's role continues to expand in the passing game, where Montgomery has shown he can still produce. If Marks starts drawing significant red zone work or target share, Montgomery's touchdown equity — the thing propping up his scoring right now — is the first thing to erode. The offense around him, with C.J. Stroud at quarterback and Nico Collins as the primary receiving threat, isn't built around establishing one runner, which makes a committee outcome more plausible than a reclaimed featured role for either back.
Treat Montgomery as a flex option in deeper formats rather than a confident weekly plug-in. His red zone usage — eight carries through five games — gives him legitimate touchdown equity in any given week, and his receiving work, seven catches on seven targets, adds a PPR floor that is real even if the overall numbers are modest. That combination is worth a roster spot and spot-start consideration, particularly in matchups where his team is expected to control the game script in scoring range. What should change the calculus: watch Woody Marks's target share and red zone touches over the next several games. If Marks starts drawing carries inside the ten or meaningful passing-game work, Montgomery's scoring role narrows fast, and his value drops toward waiver-wire filler rather than flex-worthy. Conversely, if Montgomery's snap share keeps climbing from this season's current 46.4% mark, that's evidence the coaching staff is consolidating work his way despite the efficiency dip, and he becomes a more confident start. For now, he belongs in flex consideration with upside tied almost entirely to scoring chances rather than clock-control volume. Don't bench him outright, but don't anchor a lineup around him either — his week-to-week ceiling is capped by a shrinking per-carry average until the yards-per-carry number recovers toward last season's 4.5 mark.
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