IND · QB
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
▼ -1.3 ptsAI-assisted · Researched and drafted by our automated pipeline, then checked for accuracy before publishing. How we make these
Daniel Jones sits atop the Indianapolis depth chart as the clear starter, taking 100% of the offensive snaps through the first two games of 2026, a slight uptick from the 91.1% share he carried across thirteen starts in 2025. That full-time presence means every dropback in this offense runs through him. Last season he attempted 384 passes, completing 261 for a 67.97% completion rate, and he added modest rushing equity with 45 carries for 164 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Through two games this year he has thrown 62 times, completed 41 for a 66.13% rate, and produced only two rushing attempts for 14 yards, a sharp drop in the run-game involvement that boosted his floor a year ago. The passing volume is intact; the rushing juice that separated him from a pure pocket passer has not shown up yet. Around him, Jonathan Taylor anchors the backfield as the starting running back, Alec Pierce is listed as the top wide receiver, and Tyler Warren, now in his second year, is the starting tight end. That trio defines how defenses allocate attention: Taylor's ground-game gravity and Warren's presence as a receiving target both shape the coverage Jones sees on a given snap. Nothing about his positioning on the chart is in question — this is his offense to run, for better or worse, and the sample size so far is thin enough that role security matters more right now than results.
The case for Daniel Jones starts with usage. A quarterback taking 100% of his team's snaps and throwing the ball at a similar clip to last season — 62 attempts through two games against 384 across thirteen starts a year ago — is going to accumulate box-score production simply by being on the field for every play. His completion percentage has held steady, 66.13% now against 67.97% for all of 2025, which suggests the underlying accuracy profile hasn't collapsed. Touchdown scoring last year, nineteen passing scores against just eight interceptions, points to a team willing to let him operate in scoring range rather than hand the ball off exclusively. And the receiving weapons around him give reason for optimism: Tyler Warren, entering his second season as the starting tight end, offers a new expanding target in the middle of the field, while Alec Pierce holds down the top receiver spot. If Warren's route tree grows as expected in year two, Jones has a security blanket that should show up in target share and short-to-intermediate completions.n The case against him is written directly in the two data points bracketing this stretch. His PPR points per game have fallen from 18 last season to 11.2 through the current two-game sample, and his positional finish has slipped from seventeenth among PPR scorers to twenty-seventh. Two interceptions already this year, against eight across the entirety of 2025, is a rate that, if it continued, would erase the touchdown efficiency that made him a serviceable fantasy option last season. The rushing production that used to pad his floor — 164 yards and five touchdowns on 45 carries a season ago — has all but disappeared, with just 14 yards on four carries so far. That rushing dimension mattered: it was the difference between an ordinary passer and a quarterback who could return startable value even on an off day throwing the ball. Without it, Jones is leaning entirely on downfield efficiency he hasn't yet reestablished this year.n The honest read is that two games is a small sample against a thirteen-game baseline, and regression toward his 2025 form, particularly in the touchdown-to-interception ratio, is plausible given the personnel around him remains largely the same. But the running dropoff is a real change in his weekly ceiling, not noise, and until Jonathan Taylor's workload and Tyler Warren's target growth translate into more scoring chances for Jones specifically, the floor looks lower than it did last season.
Treat Daniel Jones as a streaming option rather than a locked-in weekly start right now. His full snap share guarantees volume, but volume without efficiency or rushing equity is a mediocre fantasy profile, and his early finish of twenty-seventh among PPR quarterbacks reflects that. Managers in one-quarterback leagues should have a competent backup plan rather than committing to him every week; in two-quarterback or superflex formats, his passing volume alone keeps him rosterable as a low-end starter.n What would change the calculus: a return of the rushing production that boosted him last season — even a handful of designed runs or scrambles similar to his 45-carry, 164-yard, five-touchdown 2025 mark would meaningfully lift his floor. Watch also for Tyler Warren's target share climbing as the second-year tight end settles into a featured role; if Warren starts drawing red-zone looks, Jones's touchdown numbers should follow. A drop in the interception rate back toward last year's eight-in-thirteen-games pace would also restore confidence.n Until those signals show up, keep him as a bench piece or streaming play tied to matchup, not a set-and-forget start. He is worth stashing in deeper leagues given the guaranteed snaps, but the current per-game output does not justify an every-week commitment based on the evidence in hand.
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