NO · WR
Projected Points (PPR)
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Chris Olave sits atop the depth chart at his position in New Orleans, and the snap count confirms it is not a nominal title. He played all five games this season and has been on the field for 85% of the offensive snaps, consistent with last year's 84%. Through five games he has already drawn 54 targets, on pace to approach last season's full-year total of 156 within a handful of additional weeks. The catch rate has climbed to 72.2%, up from 64.1% a year ago, and the per-catch average has grown as well, from 11.6 yards per reception to 13.8. Quarterback Tyler Shough, in his first year as the depth chart starter, has clearly made Olave the preferred target early in his progressions — the volume and accuracy both point to a quarterback who trusts him. Tight end Juwan Johnson holds the top tight end job in the same offense, but the target distribution so far has not come at Olave's expense; the receiver's share of work looks, if anything, more concentrated than last year. The one soft spot in the profile is red-zone involvement: four targets inside the twenty through five games, down from thirteen across sixteen games a year ago, and that has suppressed his touchdown total to a single score compared with nine last season. Everything else about the role — the snap share, the target total, the catch rate — says this is a featured receiver in an offense still establishing its passing identity under a new starter.
The case for Chris Olave starts with usage that has actually improved. He finished a year ago with 269 PPR points, 16.8 per game, and a finish of six among all players at his position. Through five games this season he is already producing 19.7 points per game and ranks fourth at his position in PPR scoring — a higher per-game rate than last year's full-season pace, built on 39 receptions on 54 targets for 537 yards. The catch rate jump, from 64.1% to 72.2%, suggests Tyler Shough is finding him on higher-percentage throws, and the yards-per-reception increase to 13.8 shows those completions are not all checkdowns. For an offense breaking in a first-year starter at quarterback, a receiver this trusted and this efficient is a notable building block.footnote The case against starts with the touchdown column. One receiving score through five games, against four red-zone targets, is a steep drop from thirteen red-zone looks and nine touchdowns across all of last season. Touchdown production in the passing game is volatile and tends to migrate back toward the red-zone opportunity rate over a full season; if the red-zone volume stays this thin, the touchdown rate could stay suppressed even as the yardage keeps climbing. There is also the question of whether a 72.2% catch rate on 13.8 yards per reception is sustainable as the sample grows — efficiency spikes in small samples regress more often than not, and 156 targets a year ago against 54 through five games this year suggests the raw volume, while healthy, has not yet definitively outpaced last season's pace. Juwan Johnson's presence as the established tight end option means the red-zone package could migrate away from Olave over time rather than toward him, which would keep the touchdown number light even if the yardage total stays strong. Taken together, this is a receiver whose underlying role — snap share, target share, catch rate — is as strong as it has ever been, but whose touchda down rate in particular rides on volatile red-zone math that has not gone his way yet this year. The yardage and reception volume support confidence in his weekly floor; the touchdown equity is the variable that will decide whether his season matches or exceeds last year's six finish among all players at his position.
Start Chris Olave without hesitation in all standard formats. A receiver running 85% of his snaps, drawing 54 targets in five weeks, and posting 19.7 PPR points per game is a clear every-week option regardless of format. The efficiency gains — catch rate up to 72.2%, yards per catch up to 13.8 — make the floor safer than a volume-only profile would suggest, since he is not simply racking up empty targets. The one thing that should temper expectations is the touchdown math: four red-zone targets through five games is thin, and if that does not improve, weekly scoring will depend more heavily on yardage and reception totals than on touchdowns. Buy into the role, not the one-score total, when setting season-long expectations. If red-zone usage climbs back toward last year's rate of thirteen targets across a full season, the touchdown total should follow and push his per-game scoring higher still. If it does not, he remains a target-volume asset whose weekly floor is set by receptions and yardage rather than touchdown spikes. There is no scenario in the data that argues for benching him; the only question is whether managers should expect touchdown equity to arrive later in the season.
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