TB · QB
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
No projection changes recorded this week.
AI-assisted · Researched and drafted by our automated pipeline, then checked for accuracy before publishing. How we make these
Baker Mayfield sits atop the depth chart in Tampa Bay as the unquestioned starter, taking 100% of the offensive snaps in the season-opener and 96.9% across the full 2025 slate. That is not a rotational or committee arrangement; it is full-time control of the offense's throwing volume. Last season he threw 543 attempts, completing 343 for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, numbers that reflect a passer trusted to carry the offense through the air rather than a game manager. He adds a modest rushing element as well, with 55 attempts for 382 yards and a rushing touchdown in 2025. Through the first game of 2026 he has already logged 28 attempts, 23 completions, 216 yards and 5 rushing attempts for 30 yards and a rushing touchdown, a small sample but one that shows the same profile: high snap share, willingness to run, and touches shared with a receiving corps that includes Emeka Egbuka at the top of the target chart, Chris Godwin Jr. underneath him, Bucky Irving out of the backfield and Cade Otton at tight end. None of that group threatens Mayfield's snaps; his volume is determined by how often Tampa Bay throws the ball and how long he holds the job, not by any competition for playing time under center. That gives him a stable floor of attempts week to week, even if the efficiency and touchdown rate that produce fantasy points can vary.
The case for Baker Mayfield starts with sheer opportunity. A quarterback taking 96.9% of his team's snaps and throwing 543 times over a season, as he did in 2025, is going to accumulate yardage and touchdowns simply through repetition. His 26 passing touchdowns last season paired with 3,693 yards and a completion rate of 63.17% describe a passer operating efficiently within a high-volume role. The addition of a rushing dimension, 382 yards and a touchdown on the ground in 2025, gives him a scoring path that many pocket passers lack, and his opening game of 2026 reinforced that, with 30 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown on just five carries. That rushing upside is a real differentiator in fantasy scoring, since it adds a scoring avenue independent of touchdown variance through the air.hip with Emeka Egbuka as his top target, along with Chris Godwin Jr., Bucky Irving and Cade Otton give him a full complement of weapons to distribute the ball to, which supports his high attempt total.h passer.dback. The interceptions matter too: 11 of them in 2025 is a real number, and a passer who takes 543 attempts to reach efficient-but-not-elite numbers is exposed to weeks where the turnovers spike and the touchdowns dry up. His 2026 opener produced only 11.64 PPR points and a position finish of 27, a sharp drop from his 16.6 points per game and finish of 12 across all of 2025. One game is a small sample, but it illustrates the range he can produce: a passer with a full-time job and shared volume across several pass-catchers, including a first-year Emeka Egbuka now drawing significant early-season targets, can post either a strong week or a middling one depending on how the ball is distributed and how many big plays convert. If Egbuka's role expands further as the season progresses, that could either boost Mayfield's touchdown equity, since a featured receiver often means more scoring chances, or simply redistribute where the yardage goes without changing the overall passing math much. The honest read is that Mayfield's 2025 season, a 16.6 point-per-game average and a finish of 12, represents a solid but unspectacular floor, and his early 2026 performance suggests he can dip below that when the big plays are not there. His full-time role assures he will see the ball enough to matter, but that alone does not guarantee upper-tier weekly production.
Treat Baker Mayfield as a serviceable starting option in most formats, particularly two-quarterback and superflex leagues where his 96.9% snap share and full-time passing volume provide a dependable baseline. In standard one-quarterback leagues, he profiles as a flex-or-better option at the position rather than a set-and-forget starter, given that his 2025 average of 16.6 points per game placed him twelfth at the position and his 2026 opener produced just 11.64 points and a finish of 27. Managers should not bench him outright, since the underlying job security and volume, 543 attempts and 26 touchdowns in 2025 plus a rushing touchdown, are real assets. But it is reasonable to treat him as a matchup-dependent play rather than an automatic plug-in, especially early in 2026 as his distribution among Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Bucky Irving and Cade Otton settles into a pattern. What would change the calculus: a sustained uptick in touchdown rate or a return to something closer to his 2025 per-game average would push him back toward a weekly starter. Conversely, if the interception rate that produced 11 picks in 2025 resurfaces alongside the modest passing total from his 2026 opener, he becomes a bench piece to be started only in favorable matchups. He is not a wire candidate given his role, but he is also not a must-start every single week.
Projections, injury status and news above update automatically. This section is rewritten when his role changes. Browse every player
No recent news
Breaking news appears here within minutes of reporting