MIN · RB
Projected Points (PPR)
This week
No projection changes recorded this week.
AI-assisted · Researched and drafted by our automated pipeline, then checked for accuracy before publishing. How we make these
Aaron Jones Sr. sits atop the running back depth chart in Minnesota, and the early usage backs that up. Through two games this season he has logged 61.5% of the offense's snaps, a jump from the 55.1% share he carried across twelve games and twelve starts a season ago. That bump in snap share has translated directly into carries: 35 rush attempts in two games puts him on a pace well above last year's 132 attempts across a full slate of appearances. The red zone work has followed too, with four carries inside the twenty already this season against 14 for the entire prior year. This is not a committee arrangement on paper — it is a featured role, at least for now, in an offense built around quarterback Kyler Murray, top receiver Justin Jefferson, second receiver Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson. None of those pass-catchers change what Jones is asked to do on early downs; his job is to be the primary rusher and a check-down option, and the early-season numbers say the coaching staff is leaning on him to do exactly that. The receiving side has been thin so far — one target through two games compares oddly with the 41 targets he saw all last season — but two games is a small sample and receiving usage often fluctuates week to week before settling into a pattern. If the early rushing volume holds, this is a back getting fed the ball on early downs in a division-relevant offense, and that is a role worth tracking closely rather than dismissing.
The case for Aaron Jones Sr. starts with opportunity. Last season he finished 41st among running backs in PPR scoring despite playing in all twelve of his team's games he appeared in, posting 9.9 points per game on 548 rushing yards and a 4.2 yards-per-carry average. That is a modest per-game return, but it came without much red zone opportunity — only 14 red zone carries all year — and without huge target volume relative to his touches, 41 targets translating into 28 receptions and 199 yards. This season, the early returns show real growth in workload: 35 carries and 145 rushing yards through two games, a 4.1 yards-per-carry mark essentially in line with last year's efficiency, and already four red zone carries, close to a third of last season's total in a fraction of the games. If that pace continues, the yardage and touchdown opportunities should scale up meaningfully, and his 10.3 points-per-game rate so far, which has him 23rd among running backs, already represents an improvement on his 41st-place finish a year ago.//The case against him is about sustainability and about what happens to the passing-game role. A single touchdown so far and only one target through two games are both flags. Last season's profile was that of a rusher who supplemented his value with a real receiving role — 28 catches is not nothing — and if that role has genuinely disappeared in the new offense, the touchdown-or-bust nature of a pure early-down runner becomes riskier from one week to the next. Backs who lose passing-game work are more exposed to game-flow swings; if his team falls behind, the plays simply may not come to him. There is also the matter of red zone conversion: four carries so far but only one rushing touchdown suggests the scoring hasn't caught up to the workload yet, and it's fair to ask whether that gap closes or whether this ends up looking more like last season's two-touchdown season, just with slightly better volume.//Steelmanning the skeptical view further: a 4.2 yards-per-carry average last season and a 4.1 mark so far this season are both solidly average, not explosive, figures. Nothing in the efficiency profile suggests a back who is winning with explosiveness; the value here is almost entirely about touches. That makes him touch-dependent in a way that is vulnerable to any shift in game plan, and two games is not enough evidence to say the elevated 61.5% snap share is the new normal rather than a small-sample blip. Still, the early trend across nearly every marker — snaps, carries, red zone work — points in the same direction, and that consistency across multiple data points is more persuasive than any one number in isolation.
Start Aaron Jones Sr. in most formats right now. The workload trend is the story: a snap share climbing to 61.5%, red zone carries already approaching last season's full-year total, and a per-game scoring rate that has him producing at a 23rd-ranked pace among running backs, up from 41st a season ago. That is enough volume to warrant an every-week look in standard lineups, even in an offense that also features Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson drawing attention elsewhere.//The one thing to monitor closely is the receiving role. Last season's 41 targets and 28 receptions were a real part of his value; if the current stretch of one target through two games continues, his weekly ceiling narrows to what the rushing production alone can provide, and that makes him more matchup-dependent and more touchdown-reliant than a true dual-threat back. If red zone carries keep climbing without accompanying touchdowns, that is a signal of some inefficiency worth watching rather than a reason to panic.//For fantasy managers building a roster, this is a name to check regularly rather than set and forget, since two games of data can shift quickly. A tool that resurfaces snap-share and target trends automatically each week would catch a fade in receiving work before it shows up in the box score gap between carries and production.
Projections, injury status and news above update automatically. This section is rewritten when his role changes. Browse every player
No recent news
Breaking news appears here within minutes of reporting