The reasonable case against drafting MarShawn Lloyd starts with a simple fact: he has six career carries and one career reception. Any argument for a top-12 finish is built almost entirely on depth-chart placement rather than production, and depth charts change fast in the NFL. Josh Jacobs is the Packers' established lead back, not a fringe roster piece, and his commissioner's exempt list status is widely expected to be temporary. Add in Kaleb Johnson, a rookie drafted specifically to compete for touches, and Chris Brooks, who remains on the roster as insurance, and the sober read is that Lloyd is a short-term fill-in whose runway could close the moment Jacobs is cleared to play. A fantasy manager who passes on Lloyd because the arithmetic of a crowded backfield doesn't support a top-12 forecast is not being unreasonable. That manager is pricing in exactly what the situation currently shows.
The Backfield Jacobs Left Behind
Green Bay enters 2026 with Jordan Love again at quarterback and Matt LaFleur again calling the offense through coordinator Adam Stenavich, so the passing infrastructure around this backfield hasn't changed. What has changed is who is available to carry the ball. Jacobs sits on the commissioner's exempt list, which removes the presumptive starter from the equation for now. Emanuel Wilson, who provided reserve and early-down relief behind Jacobs and Lloyd last year, left in free agency in March when Seattle signed him, thinning the depth chart further. The Packers used a draft pick on Kaleb Johnson, the clearest new addition at the position, and he is on the initial 53-man roster alongside Lloyd and Brooks. That is the full picture the market is working from: an established starter unavailable, a rookie added specifically to compete, and a journeyman holding a roster spot. The consensus treats this as a committee-in-waiting. The evidence on the ground says otherwise, at least for the moment.
Camp Bought Him the No. 1 Rotation Spot
Every recent depth-chart signal points the same direction. A Packers practice report said there was no doubt Lloyd would enter the season as the No. 1 back, and separate coverage described him as sitting atop the running back depth chart after getting through camp and the preseason unscathed. Packers.com called him as ready as he's ever been and said he was quite likely heading into Week 1 as the feature back. None of that is speculation about a future role; it is a description of where the depth chart stands right now, with the initial 53-man roster listing Lloyd among three backs behind Jacobs' exempt-list absence, not below Johnson or Brooks. For a player who spent most of last season unavailable with a recurring hamstring injury, arriving at Week 1 as the stated No. 1 is the single most important fact in this evaluation. It is the difference between a speculative bench stash and a player who opens the season touching the ball on early downs.
A Scheme Built for a Lead Back
LaFleur's offense has long been structured around getting one back a real workload rather than splitting carries evenly, and nothing about the coaching staff's approach to the run game changed this offseason beyond a quarterbacks-room shuffle that doesn't touch how the backfield is used. Running backs coach Ben Sirmans said Lloyd has done different things with his body over the offseason and prepares himself the right way, adding that the staff is starting to feel a lot more confident he's going to be fine, while still cautioning that vigilance is warranted. That combination of scheme fit and internal confidence matters because it suggests the Packers are not simply defaulting to Lloyd out of necessity. They sound like a staff that trusts him to handle the volume a LaFleur backfield typically directs at one player, which is a materially different bet than a committee back inheriting scraps.
What Has To Break Right From Here
The honest risk in this pick is exactly what the skeptical view identifies. Lloyd's durability history is real; skepticism about his availability has followed him into this season, and a player who missed his entire second year with a recurring hamstring issue does not get the benefit of the doubt on a full 17-game workload. Jacobs is expected back at some point in 2026, and when that happens, Lloyd's touches shrink quickly, with Johnson and Brooks both still on the roster to absorb whatever is left over. Two preseason games produced only 10 carries for 30 yards and two catches for 7 yards, with one report noting a modest 67.8 PFF run grade, which is a thin performance sample to lean on even for a clear starter. For Lloyd to finish inside the top-12 at his position for the full season, either Jacobs' return needs to be delayed well beyond the opening weeks, or Lloyd needs to play well enough in that window that the Packers can't easily hand the job back. Both are plausible. Neither is guaranteed.
Where Lloyd's Price Should Land Now
The strongest claim this evidence supports is not that Lloyd is a lock for a top-12 finish over 17 games. It is that he opens the season as Green Bay's unambiguous lead back in a scheme built to feed one runner, and that window alone should produce weekly RB2-caliber production for as long as it lasts. The market has already moved to reflect a chunk of this, with Lloyd's redraft price climbing into the RB30 range and ADP guides shifting him up from a late-round afterthought. That repricing is appropriate for a short-window starter; it is not yet pricing him as a season-long RB2, which is the correct gap for drafters to exploit. Treat him as a must-roster flex play the moment Week 1 confirms the role, and reassess aggressively the day Jacobs is activated.