Jonathan Brooks is currently being drafted as the RB37 off the board. That price reflects a player the market views as an injury-risk dart throw — someone you take in the ninth round to get lottery-ticket upside without sacrificing a meaningful pick. The market is underreacting. The conditions surrounding Brooks in Carolina right now support a more concrete outcome: a top-36 fantasy RB finish in 2026, with a legitimate path into the top 24 if he converts camp momentum into a clear Week 1 starting role.
The revised claim matters. The original framing — top-24 as a near-certainty — runs ahead of what the dossier currently supports. Brooks is still competing behind Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart, and projections peg him at 108.4 fantasy points for the season, a number that sits in the RB30-36 range rather than firmly inside the top 24. But the claim is not that Brooks is a safe starter. The claim is that the combination of draft capital, scheme fit, coach endorsement, and a rising camp profile makes him a strong top-36 finisher, and that his top-24 ceiling is real and nearer than his ADP acknowledges.
The Coach Already Told You What He Thinks
Dave Canales is not a head coach who throws around praise carelessly. When he says a player looks like someone he remembers, that is a functional endorsement of readiness. Canales described Brooks as looking like 'the guy that I remember,' which is the most specific and telling piece of evidence in this entire case. Canales controls the snap count. He controls the game-plan design. He controls who gets carries in close games. When that man uses that phrasing about a player coming off injury, it signals that the coaching staff has already seen enough in practice to believe the player is back.
“looks like the guy that I remember”
— Dave Canales on Jonathan Brooks
Canales runs a system that values backfield versatility and receiving work out of the backfield. Brooks' profile — a one-cut runner with enough receiving ability to contribute in the passing game — fits that framework. His 2026 projection includes 25.1 receptions alongside 154.8 rush attempts. Those receiving targets are not a small detail. In a Canales offense, a back who can be trusted on third down is a back who stays on the field in the most valuable game situations. Brooks' receiving ability is not a secondary skill; it is the piece that makes the high-floor projection credible even if he never fully wrests the lead role from Hubbard.
The Camp Evidence Points Toward a Starting Role
Training camp reports from July 2026 describe Brooks as having a strong start to Panthers camp. A beat reporter noted a nice one-cut run in traffic, which is the kind of specific physical observation that carries more weight than generic health updates. One-cut running in traffic is exactly what gets tested on an ACL recovery — change of direction, lower-body confidence, the willingness to plant and accelerate without hesitation. The fact that the observation appeared organically in camp coverage, rather than as a coached media-day talking point, gives it credibility.
Multiple reports have framed the starting role as genuinely open. The phrasing used is that Brooks has the opportunity to start if he can hold off the competition. That is not a ringing declaration that the job is his. But it is a meaningful departure from depth-chart language that assigns a clear incumbent. Hubbard is listed ahead of Brooks at this stage, but the summer reporting is not treating that as settled. A player whose opportunity to start is described as open in late July is not a ninth-round flier — he is a player one depth-chart update away from a significant ADP correction.
Projections Already Support a Top-36 Floor
The FantasyPros 2026 projection assigns Brooks 154.8 rush attempts, 623.7 rushing yards, 3.9 rushing touchdowns, 25.1 receptions, and 108.4 fantasy points. These numbers were built on his current depth-chart standing — meaning they already assume some role ambiguity and competition from Hubbard. If that competition resolves in Brooks' favor before the season begins, those projections are a floor, not a ceiling. A workhorse back in a Canales offense with 154-plus carries and a legitimate receiving role lands comfortably inside the top 36 and is a realistic top-24 candidate if he reaches that workload healthy.
His ADP as the RB37 essentially prices him at his current projected production. The market is not pricing in upside. Any positive depth-chart development — a Hubbard injury, a dominant August, a Week 1 designation as the starter — and the gap between his ADP value and his actual fantasy value widens materially. That asymmetry is the core of the case.
The Counter-Argument Is Real and Deserves a Full Hearing
The strongest counter-argument here is not the depth chart. It is the injury history. Brooks tore the ACL in the same knee in college, re-tore it in Week 14 of his rookie season in 2024, and missed the entire 2025 season. That is two ACL tears in the same knee within roughly two years. The medical and fantasy community has legitimate grounds to be skeptical. Running backs depend on their knees in ways that quarterbacks and receivers do not — every cut, every plant, every contact rep is a stress test on the repaired tissue. A back who has torn the same ACL twice and missed a full season cannot be treated with the same availability assumption you would apply to a healthy 22-year-old.
There is also the matter of role ambiguity. Brooks is currently behind Hubbard on the Carolina depth chart. Hubbard is an established NFL player with genuine carry equity. If Brooks enters September as the RB2 rather than the starter, the path to 154-plus rush attempts does not exist, and that changes the entire fantasy outlook. One injury or one strong Hubbard camp is enough to make the top-36 case collapse.
The answer to both concerns is pricing. An ESPN analysis described Brooks as a bust-to-boom comeback story while acknowledging skepticism about his ceiling. That dual framing — optimism undercut by reservation — is exactly what keeps a player's ADP suppressed. At the ninth round and RB37, the market has already discounted the injury history and the depth-chart uncertainty. You are not paying a starter's price. You are paying a backup's price for a player whose coach has publicly said looks like his old self, who is posting encouraging camp reps, and who carries a receiving profile that keeps him on the field even if he never fully displaces Hubbard. The risk is real. The price accounts for it.
Verdict
Jonathan Brooks finishes as a top-36 fantasy RB in 2026, with a clear top-24 path that opens the moment the Carolina starting job becomes unambiguously his. The FantasyPros projection, the Canales endorsement, the receiving role in a scheme built for versatile backs, and the rising camp profile all point in the same direction. The injury history is the legitimate brake on the claim, and it is why the top-24 outcome remains conditional rather than baseline. But at RB37 and pick 102, you are not being asked to bet on the optimistic scenario. You are being offered odds that do not reflect the available evidence.
Draft Brooks in the ninth round. Watch the depth chart through August. If he wins the starting job before your draft closes, move up your bid. If he enters September as the clear RB1 in Carolina, his ADP will not stay at 37 for long.