Dalton Schultz posted 26.0 PPR points in Week 2, the best tight end score of the week, and he was still sitting on waivers in more than 35% of ESPN leagues as of Sept. 26. That gap between production and roster percentage is the whole story. The market has priced Schultz as a two-game mirage, a volume spike that exists only because Nico Collins is hurt and disappears the moment Collins jogs back onto the field. That is a reasonable read of the surface data. It is also, on the evidence, too conservative.
Through two games Schultz has 22 targets, 16 receptions and 175 yards, including a 14-target, 12-catch, 140-yard eruption against Cincinnati that represented career highs in every counting category. Week-ahead rankings have already moved him into TE6 territory, with some outlets pushing him to TE4 if the volume holds. The question that actually matters for a roster decision isn't whether this week's line repeats. It's whether the underlying role survives Collins's return. The evidence says more of it survives than the consensus assumes.
The Room With Foster Moreau and Brevin Jordan
Houston did not leave Schultz's tight end room untouched this offseason. The Texans signed Foster Moreau and Brevin Jordan in March 2026 free agency, both pass-catching tight ends who could, in theory, siphon snaps and short-area targets. Neither addition changed the pecking order in practice. Coverage entering the season still projected Schultz to lead the position group despite the added depth, and nothing in the current usage pattern suggests either Moreau or Jordan has cut into his route share. This is depth insurance, not a competition Schultz is currently losing.
The bigger variables sit elsewhere on the depth chart. C.J. Stroud remains the starting quarterback and the thrower who has funneled 22 targets to Schultz in two weeks. David Montgomery is the lead back, and his workload is concentrated enough on the ground that it has not meaningfully competed with Schultz for check-down volume in the passing game. Nico Collins, Houston's clear WR1, was ruled out for Week 3 with a hamstring injury on Sept. 25, extending the exact stretch that has made Schultz the focal point. Every one of those pieces matters to the forecast: Stroud throwing him the ball, Montgomery not cutting into his passing-game share, and Collins's absence being the single biggest lever on Schultz's target count right now.
The Case for Paying Up: Volume That Looks Structural, Not Borrowed
The strongest argument for Schultz is that his current workload does not look like a fill-in assignment. NFL Fantasy noted he was running the most routes he has since 2021, which points to a scheme decision by Houston's staff to build concentrated volume around him rather than a one-week accident. Houston also gave him a veteran rest day at Wednesday practice after the Cincinnati breakout, then had him back at practice the next day. That is workload management for a player the team intends to lean on again, not caution around an injury concern. Add the one-year, $12.6 million extension Houston gave Schultz in March 2026, which keeps him under team control through 2027, and the picture is of a front office that views him as a long-term piece of the passing game, not a placeholder.
The Case for Paying Up: An Advantage No Other Tight End Has
The second argument is about where Schultz sits in Houston's target hierarchy, independent of Collins's health. As one outlet put it directly:
“There are not many teams where the tight end is the top receiving target, which gives Schultz an advantage over every tight end in the NFL for fantasy purposes.”
— Yahoo Sports, Sept. 26, 2026
That framing matters because it is not touchdown-dependent. NFL Fantasy separately observed that Schultz is the beneficiary of volume without Nico Collins, which describes a route-and-target share advantage rather than a red-zone role that evaporates on tough matchups. A tight end whose fantasy floor is built on quick-game targets and route volume is a more stable weekly asset than one who needs scores to justify his ranking, and that stability is the part of Schultz's profile most likely to survive Collins's return.
What Happens When Nico Collins Comes Back
The honest counter-argument deserves its full weight. Top-5 tight end finishes typically require either an elite weekly target share or dependable red-zone scoring, and Schultz's current spike is tied directly to an absent WR1. Once Collins returns, Stroud's progression reads change, and some of the 14-target weeks almost certainly come off the board. FantasyPros framed Schultz's featured role as conditional on Collins staying sidelined, and that is the correct baseline expectation once the alpha receiver is active again. It is also fair to note that Foster Moreau and Brevin Jordan exist specifically to eat into tight end snaps if Schultz's workload ever needs trimming, even if they haven't done so yet.
That case is strong enough to cap the ceiling. It is not strong enough to erase the floor. Schultz was Houston's presumptive TE1 before Collins got hurt, the extension through 2027 signals the team views him as an entrenched piece rather than a placeholder, and the routes-since-2021 workload predates the current stretch of full featured usage. The realistic landing spot once Collins is back is not a repeat of 26-point weeks, but it is also not a fall into streaming territory. A settle-back into the TE8-TE10 range is the more defensible outcome than the TE14-and-lower collapse the waiver-wire behavior implies.
Where Schultz Settles Once Houston Is Whole
The tiebreaker here is opportunity cost. Schultz is still available in more than a third of leagues after posting the top tight end score of the week, which means the acquisition price is near zero relative to the role he holds. Even if the ceiling case—top-5 finishes sustained across a season—requires Collins to stay out longer than anyone expects, the floor case is that Schultz keeps a weekly-starter role in a Stroud-led passing game that has already shown it will target him at a high rate. That combination of a low price and a durable floor is the definition of value, regardless of what happens to the ceiling.